Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
