Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
